Who would have thought it? Only eight years ago Swansea needed to win on the final day of the season to retain their Football League status. Today, they are preparing for their first matches in the top flight since 1983. Can they stay up? And what of Cardiff? They lost in the play-offs for the second straight year and must contemplate at least one more season in the Championship. Will they finally take that next step with so many top players having left the club? RedHanded looks at what Wales’ big two have done - and can do - to upset the odds next season.

Swansea
Tactics: Will Swansea continue with their aggressive football, risking the consequences when they lose possession with men forward? Or will they pack the midfield, playing a more defensive game with extra emphasis on set-pieces and counter-attacks? Some pundits point to Blackpool’s relegation last season as a reason for the latter. But their demise was largely because of a thin squad - a flaw exposed when injuries inevitably struck - and not their cavalier style, even if they should have reined it in at times. What became apparent was that many clubs appeared to struggle against their aggression. The Premier League status-quo is for a midfield battle – unless the opposition are Arsenal - so an aggressive team might enjoy the element of surprise.

Personnel: Their promotion was worth an estimated £88m (approximately £40m of that comes now and £48m will come in parachute payments if they are immediately relegated), meaning they have ample resources to strengthen their squad. A goalkeeper is the priority after Dorus de Vries left for Wolves, a minimum of one quality central defender is needed and ideally another central midfielder will be signed. A good striking partner for new arrival Danny Graham, from Watford, would also be welcomed, but generally cover is needed in most positions (maybe six new players in all). Recruiting some experienced heads will be important as just seven of the current squad have played top-flight football and most of those only managed a handful of games.

Infrastructure: Swansea have the second smallest stadium capacity in the Premier League, which severely caps their match day turnover relative to other teams in the division. They will be fine in the immediate future when it comes to transfer fees and wages (£88m goes a long way), but long-term growth will require a bigger capacity. Chairman Huw Jenkins has already discussed the possibility of increasing the Liberty Stadium’s capacity by 10,000, a move that would cost approximately £15m. It is a lengthy process and is unlikely to commence until next summer.

Curb your enthusiasm? There is an interesting school of thought, albeit an unpopular one outside Cardiff, that suggests a quiet relegation would not be a bad thing. The theory goes that Swansea, by not gambling the majority of their finances on players, would benefit from a return to the Championship with their huge coffers intact. This would enable the club to build solid foundations (increase their stadium capacity and deepen the squad) for a future Premier League campaign, a campaign that would have a greater chance of long-term survival. The theory has some merit but it would be a tough one for the public relations department to explain!

Player to watch: Stephen Dobbie is not the club’s biggest star but he could be the revelation of the season. Some Swans fans believe he will be a class act at the higher level, describing him as the “next Charlie Adam”.

What the bookies say: Favourites for the drop at 4/9 (William Hill).

CARDIFF
Finances: Everything in football revolves around money and Cardiff always seem to be lugging around debts. Indeed, they are currently estimated to be anywhere between £20m and £40m in the red. What is encouraging, however, is that the Malaysian owners are not looking for a quick fix even though they could afford one. In a revealing interview recently, chief executive Gethin Jenkins explained that rather than plough in a large sum to clear debts and buy stars, the bosses are keen to establish proper business practises. The fans who experienced the boom and bust years of Sam Hammam will be grateful down the line if such sensible plans work out.

Recruitment: Cardiff have an enormous amount to do before the season starts. The exodus of players has been brutal on the squad and it is hard to quantify exactly what the effect will be. Losing Craig Bellamy and Jay Bothroyd at the end of the season was devastating, even if it was predictable. Two forwards of that calibre simply cannot be replaced at Championship level. And what about Michael Chopra? His transfer to Ipswich for a reported £1.5m took Cardiff from being in a position where they had quality in the first XI and on the bench to looking thin up front. The departures of Chris Burke and Adam Matthews on free transfers – Bothroyd also left for nothing at the end of his contract – give fans a good reason to be frustrated. But, then again, one of the qualities that drew Cardiff to Malky Mackay is his ability in the market. And the clear-out has allowed him to put his own stamp on the team from the start. The signing of Andrew Taylor on a free transfer from Middlesbrough was a coup. He really is a fine player. And the deals for Craig Conway, from Dundee United, and Don Cowie, from Watford, represent very good business. Neither is a marquee name, but both were free and have played international football. Not bad at all. Then there is the signing on yet another free transfer of Rob Earnshaw, from Nottingham Forest. He is a proven goal-scorer and the fans love him – excellent PR and another superb signing.

The Malky effect: One of the reasons managers get sacked is the hope that the successor will provide an instant lift to his players. That need is great at Cardiff. The play-off failures hit the squad extremely hard and the subsequent departures of the star names will have hurt morale further. Mackay is known to be a top man-manager from his days at Watford and he has to prove it again. Call in back-up: An incoming manager always needs trusted sounding boards at his side, staff whose opinions are valuable and loyalty unquestioned. Mackay got this sorted within weeks of arriving, bringing in his assistant manager, coach and medical expert. Getting matters sorted behind the scenes is vital to a manager and failure to do so has cost a few jobs down the years.

Take a long view: If ever there was a season that Cardiff fans did not expect much, then it is this one. Mackay has the chance to blood youngsters and build towards the future ahead of a more realistic push in 2012-13.

Player to watch: Rob Earnshaw. Might be slightly past his best at 30 but he has scored more than 200 goals as a professional. Quality player.

What the bookies say: 5/1 for promotion (William Hill), rating them behind seven other clubs.

Going up… staying down